According to the ABI Research (News - Alert) report, "WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts," service providers with the right spectrum, available capital, and access to enough sites to place base stations are poised to leverage WiMAX’s headstart on the 4G market.

However, LTE (News - Alert) (Long-Term Evolution) and UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband) are also vying for 4G. Although mobile WiMAX has a time-to-market advantage over LTE, the report says that delays in certifications by the WiMAX (News - Alert) Forum (coupled with delays in network rollouts) could cause problems. As the true battle for 4G is between mobile WiMAX and LTE, the research firm emphasizes that UMB will not gain traction.

ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis said in a statement that the biggest opportunity for mobile WiMAX is the chance to develop a wider device ecosystem and worldwide subscriber base before LTE starts to do the same.

Solis further explained that LTE remains a potential threat to WiMAX as 3GPP-backed LTE will become the dominant 4G technology and is progressing quickly toward standardization. LTE is also seeing early trials take place while moving into TDD (as well as FDD) spectrum territory.

ABI points out that with over 80 percent of the installed base of base stations worldwide, GSM-based networks represent the primary radio access network technology deployed. With an exception to Verizon (News - Alert) Wireless, the WCDMA networks will thus generally migrate to LTE. In future, this will translate to wider deployment at a faster rate than WiMAX. ABI predicts that after 2015, LTE subscriber numbers will surpass mobile WiMAX subscribers.

The report also says that 802.16m, or WiMAX 2.0, will make its way into products, around the same time that LTE rolls out. Also, 802.16m will be part of the IMT-Advanced set of technologies similar to LTE.

Solis noted that one main differentiator for 802.16m will be its backwards-compatibility with a developed OFDMA ecosystem derived from 802.16e. LTE will be not be backwards-compatible with anything except through the inclusion of 2G and 3G radios. In contrast, 2G/3G compatibility can and will be achieved with WiMAX in the same way.

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Anuradha Shukla is a contributing editor for TMCnet, covering call centers, CRM and information technology. To see more of her articles, please visit her columnist page.

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